Monday, December 11th, 2017

NCAA Day 1 Late Games

Published on March 17, 2011 by   ·   No Comments

7 UCLA vs 10 Michigan State

This will be a very competitive matchup between 7 vs 12 as the Michigan State Spartans (19-14) will take on the UCLA Bruins (22-10). The Spartans have been a nightmare to bet for or against all season long, but they still have a lot of talent including Kalin Lucas and of course coach Tom Izzo has been here many times before. The Bruins are a young team that is still very talented and they have had some good games against quality opponents, including beating BYU and losing by 1 at Kansas.

msu-spartans-vs-ucla-bruins

UCLA is 6-1 in the first round over the past 10 years in the NCAA tournament. They have continued to win 5 of 6 second round matchups, are 3-2 in Sweet 16 games, 3 and 0 in Elite 8 matchups, 1-2 in the Final Four and lost in the Finals once.

msu-vs-uclaMSU has an equally impressive NCAA tournament resume. The Spartans last won the National Championship 11 years ago in 2000. They have a 7-3 record in the first round for the last 10 years. This includes a 6-1 record in the 2nd round, 5-1 record in the Sweet 16, 4-1 record in the Elite 8, a 1-3 record in the Final Four and 1 loss in the National Championship game two years ago to North Carolina.

Despite being the 10 seed, the Spartans are actually a 1 1/2 favorite in this game tonight. Here are the betting stats for Thursday’s game:

The Spartans are 3-0-1 ATS (against the spread) in their last 4 vs. the Pac-10. The Spartans are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 NCAA Tournament games. The Spartans are 5-13-1 ATS in their last 19 games overall. The Spartans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games. The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Bruins are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog. The Bruins are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.

The Under is 6-1 in the Spartans last 7 neutral site games. The Under is 7-2 in the Spartans last 9 overall. The Under is 4-0 in the Bruins last 4 vs. the Big Ten. The Under is 4-1 in the Bruins last 5 overall.

Now for my prediction. The Spartans ended the season well after struggling through the middle of their schedule. They ended up winning a big conference tournament game against Purdue that most likely got them into the tournament. UCLA struggled this year against the top competition in the PAC-10. They lost in the first round of the PAC-10 tournament to Oregon. I think that Michigan State will win this game 75-71.

Other Late Games

I’m starting to fade today and will only give a brief glance at the other upcoming games on the schedule tonight.

6 St John’s vs 11 Gonzaga

st-johns-vs-gonzagaGonzaga has a 7-3 record in the first round of the NCAA tournament over the past 10 years. However, they have never made in past the Sweet 16 (in three attempts). Meanwhile St John’s is 0-1 in the past 10 years in the tournament, losing in their last appearance in 2002.

Gonzaga comes into the tournament hot, winning their last 9 in a row. St John’s has been doing good down the stretch as well. They lost to Syracuse in the second round of the Big East tournament.

I predict that Gonzaga will win this game by the score of 63-58.

11 Missouri vs 6 Cincinnati

missouri-vs-cincinnatiMissouri is a perfect 5-0 in the first round of the NCAA tournament over the past 10 years. They have parlayed that into 2 Elite 8 appearances in that same time. Cincinnati is 4-1 in first round games in the same period of time. They have only made it out of the 2nd round 1 time in that span, losing in the Sweet 16 in 2001.

Missouri stumbled down the stretch by losing 4 of their last 5 games. They barely won their first round matchup in the Big 12 tournament against the lowly Texas Tech Red Raiders. Cincinnati has been doing better over recently, winning 6 of their last 8. They lost in the 2nd round of the Big East tournament against Notre Dame.

I predict that Cincinnati will win this game by the score of 75-69.

5 Kansas State vs 12 Utah State

utah-state-vs-kansas-stateNeither of these teams have had much tournament action in their recent history. Kansas State is 2-0 in first round matchups in the last 10 years, though. Utah State is 1-8 all-time in the NCAA tournament and are 1-6 overall in the past 10 years.

Utah State’s record might lead you to believe that they are the better team, but they are in an inferior Conference (the WAC) that they completely dominated all year long. Meanwhile, Kansas State couldn’t beat Colorado (0-3) but were impressive against other top talent.

I predict that the Kansas State Wildcats will win this game by the score of 78-65.

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