Wednesday, December 13th, 2017

2013 Super Bowl XLVII Preview

Published on February 1, 2013 by   ·   No Comments

superbowl-xlviiThe big game comes this weekend. By now, you’ve heard all the analysis and know all about the storylines. But, you may not know who to bet on or which bets to place. The Super Bowl is always the single biggest sporting event in the United States every year.

So, who should you bet on? Let’s go through the numbers to help give you some insight into your decision:

The Spread

San Francisco is currently a 4 point favorite in Vegas while many online sportsbooks will have them listed at 3.5 point favorites. This is slightly down from the open of 4.5 points.

Currently, more than 55% of the overall wagers are being placed on Baltimore. This is because the Ravens were underdogs in each of their last two games. Even though both games look really close, Baltimore was very dominant in these games.

The Moneyline is -160 for San Francisco and +140 for Baltimore. This can vary from place to place. The Over/Under on the game is 47.5 points.

How We Got Here

San Francisco was dominant against Green Bay at home, but had to come back from a 17 point deficit against Atlanta to reach the Super Bowl.

The defenses are going to be the biggest factor in these games. For Baltimore to have a chance to win, they will need to get out to an early lead. San Francisco plays their best defense in the second halves of games; they do not tire.

The two keys for Baltimore is stopping Frank Gore and Joe Flacco needs to continue to take care of the ball. If they can make the 49ers one-dimensional, they will have a good shot to win.

San Francisco, on the other hand, needs to get to Joe Flacco. The linebackers and secondary can hold their own, but Joe Flacco will beat the defense if he gets the time. Not surprisingly, they will need to establish the running game starting with Frank Gore. Baltimore is going to key on Colin Kaepernick, so he will need to get Vernon Davis involved in order to keep the Ravens honest.

So What Will Happen?

While both teams have been scoring a lot (Baltimore 30.0 playoff PPG, San Francisco – 36.5 playoff PPG), I believe that the defenses are going to be able to dictate the pace of the game. Both teams will also try to establish the run. These factors are going to lead to fewer points in the Super Bowl. Both teams’ defense are too disciplined to let up more than 1 big play. This would lead me to take the Under.

As far as which team will win, obviously both sides have a legitimate shot. If you like Baltimore to win, I would either bet the moneyline or take an Alternate Spread like Baltimore as a 3.5 point favorite. This would allow you to bet $100 to win about $240. The odds are that this game won’t be closer than 4 points. This is magnified by the fact the David Akers has missed 8 of his last 20 field goals.

If San Francisco gets Joe Flacco to turn the ball over, they will put a decent lead on them early. If Baltimore goes one-dimensional, this game may get away from them. If this is what you believe, I would take the 49ers at -7.5 points for a chance to win $170 on a $100 bet.

Personal Prediction

I think that one of these two teams in going to blink. And when they do, the other team is going to grab a 14-point lead. Neither team has turned the ball over much, so the one that does is going to be behind the 8-ball.

I think that Baltimore is going to get out to an early lead at halftime – 17-7. I see them holding on to this lead late in the fourth. San Francisco will need to get a late TD to win, but will fall short with a 24-20 loss to the Ravens.

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