Monday, December 11th, 2017

NFL Gambling Tips

Published on September 5, 2013 by   ·   No Comments

The NFL is the most popular sports league in this country. It’s no coincidence that pro football is also the most popular sport to place wagers on as well. Between sports gambling and fantasy football, the number of NFL fans has more than doubled since the late 1990’s.

The 2013 NFL regular season begins tonight. This is the most popular time of year for sports fans to place bets on their favorite team. If you are a casual sports bettor, you can place a wager for your team to win the Super Bowl or that your team will beat the spread. That’s what being a fan is all about.

However, if you are going to bet on multiple games every week, you need to follow some basic gambling tips if you don’t want to lose money in the long run.

Top NFL Betting Tips

1) Make your own picks. Don’t believe what everyone else is saying.

The NFL is the most talked about sport. Between every sports network analyzing every game and fantasy football writers analyzing every player, there is way too much information out there. You have to realize that the spread is set on every game based upon this information. If you heard this information, you have to guess that the oddsmakers have also heard it as well.

You need to know what facts to listen to and which facts to ignore because they have to bearing on the game. Matchups are the most important factor to making your pick. If the number 1 ranked passing offense goes against the number 32 ranked passing defense, that’s pretty important information to know.

Injuries are the second most important piece of information to learn. This especially holds true on starting defensive players. You can rely on the numbers if a main factor in those numbers is out for the game. The weather and field conditions is the third most important factor when deciding which team to bet on.

2) Don’t always bet with the crowd.

The crowd is often wrong. I’ve seen it way too often. You should always be wary when the vast majority of gamblers are betting one way on the spread. This should be a red flag if the bookmakers don’t adjust the line. It means that the oddsmakers don’t agree with the majority of gamblers. This especially holds true when the favorite is getting the overwhelming amount of wagers.

Here is an interesting game that I see this weekend which fits this mold. About 80% of bettors are placing a wager on Seattle to beat the -3.5 spread on the road against Carolina. The Seahawks are the sexy pick to make the Super Bowl this season, so everyone is on board and betting on them. They went 4-0 in the preseason and didn’t play a close game. But, it’s the preseason and it doesn’t matter at all.

Seattle has a couple of things going against them, however. Their defense doesn’t play nearly as well on the road as they do at home. Also, they have traditionally struggled when they come over to the East Coast to play an early Sunday game. If I was going to go against the crowd, I would pick this game to do so.

Other times, you may want to go with the crowd. I think that the New England Patriots at the Buffalo Bills will be a blowout. Most people agree with that and are taking the -10 spread. If this was week 4 or 5, I think you would see that line closer to -14.

3) Value Betting on Underdogs

There is often more value when you place bets with the underdog against the spread. This is because a lot of people bet on the favorites in an NFL game.

There is a general rule: Bet favorites early and bet underdogs late. If you are going to bet on a favorite, you should do so when the line opens a couple of days before the game is played. If you are going to bet on the underdog, wait until the game is close to starting to receive the best value.

This is true because most of the time the other gamblers will bet up the favorite. You will want to lock in the favorable line for the favorite early before the line gets bet up. If you bet on the underdog too early, you may have receive a better line and better odds by waiting.

4) Shop for the best lines at multiple sportsbooks.

Different sports betting websites will offer a different spread for the same game. Most sportsbooks will open within a half point of the spread that the oddsmakers set. However, people place the wagers at these bookmakers at different rates and this will make the lines up to 1 to 1.5 points different.

When looking at nfl betting lines, you want to find the line that is most advantageous to your wager. Let’s use the opener between the Denver Broncos and the Baltimore Ravens as an example.

2013-nfl-football-betting

Here is how several different sportsbooks have the spread set for this game:

Bovada.lv – Baltimore +7.5 (-115) at Denver -7.5 (-105); Moneyline Baltimore +260 at Denver -320; Total 48.5

5Dimes.eu – Baltimore +9 (-135) at Denver -9 (+115); Moneyline Baltimore +260 at Denver -320; Total 48

Sportsbook.ag – Baltimore +7 (-105) at Denver -7 (-115); Moneyline Baltimore +270 at Denver -330; Total 49.5

SportsInteraction.com – Baltimore +7.5 (-115) at Denver -7.5 (-105); Moneyline Baltimore +250 at Denver -310; Total 48.5

BetLM.eu – Baltimore +7 (-105) at Denver -7 (-115); Moneyline Baltimore +270 at Denver -330; Total 49.5

BetOnline.com – Baltimore +7.5 (-120) at Denver -7.5 (+100); Moneyline Baltimore +265 at Denver -315; Total 47.5

JustBet.cx – Baltimore +7 (+100) at Denver -7 (-120); Moneyline Baltimore +270 at Denver -330; Total 47.5

SBGglobal.eu – Baltimore +7.5 (-110) at Denver -7.5 (-110); Moneyline Baltimore +265 at Denver -325; Total 48

TopBet.com – Baltimore +7.5 (-125) at Denver -7.5 (+105); Moneyline Baltimore +275 at Denver -335; Total 49

If I want to bet on Baltimore to cover the spread, I would go with 5Dimes because they offer a +9 spread. If the -135 ($135 to win $100) bothers you, then choose SBG Global with the +7.5 (-110) for the spread.

If I want to bet on Denver to cover, I would choose either Linesmaker or Sportsbook with the -7 (-115) line. If you think Denver is going to win big, you might want to choose 5Dimes with the -9 (+115) spread.

If you are betting on Denver to win straight, you should choose SIA with the -310 moneyline. If you are betting on Baltimore straight, you should pick TopBet with the +275 moneyline.

If you are betting on the under, then either Linesmaker or Sportsbook is the bet with a total of 49.5. If you are betting on the over, then either BetOnline or JustBet should be your choice with the total of 47.5.

These lines generally are very close to being accurate a lot of the time. These differences may be small, but they are often the difference between winning and losing your bet.

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