Monday, December 11th, 2017

NBA Gambling Tips

Published on November 27, 2013 by   ·   No Comments

Now that the NBA season is almost a month old, we now have enough data to try to make educated wagers on some of the upcoming games. Teams have played between 13 and 16 games this season, which is over 1/8th of the total schedule. This is the point in the season where we can now look for recent statistical trends that will point to which teams to bet for or against.

The average NBA game can be boiled down to a series of runs. One team make an 8-2 run, the other team counters with a 16-6 run of their own. There are a majority of the NBA games that will come down to how the two teams play in the last 5 minutes of a contest.

This season as a whole can also be distilled into a series of runs. Teams will tend to go on a two week run of hot or cold play. When a team is playing well, the shooting percentages go up, field goal percentage against goes down, assists go up, turnovers go down, forced turnovers go up, and rebounding differential goes up.

Now, not all of this happens at the same time. But, if a team suddenly starts performing 5% to 10% better than average in a couple of these statistical categories, you can infer that they are more likely to win a game. Likewise, a team that is playing below their season averages statistically is likely to go on a losing trend.

Point Spreads, Moneylines and Totals

Simply knowing the teams that are currently riding a hot streak or in the midst of a losing streak isn’t good enough when it comes to gambling. Betting the moneyline (which team wins a game outright) won’t get you paid, especially if you are going to bet the Indiana Pacers to beat the Milwaukee Bucks or the San Antonio Spurs to beat the Utah Jazz. The moneyline for these games will likely be -500 or more ($500 wagered to win $100).

In order to make money while gambling on the NBA, you need to be correctly predicting the Point Spreads or Over/Under on total points scored in a game. Let’s take a random game tonight for an example:

Miami Heat @ Cleveland Cavaliers – Lebron James always dominates his old team, so a lot of the wagers will be on Miami to win the point spread (Miami favored by 9 points). The Total for this game is currently 197. Let’s break down some of the key statistics to try to give ourselves the best possible knowledge for predicting the outcome.

Over the past 5 games, Miami has gone 5-0 with only one of these games being decided by less than 10 points. Miami has shot over 50% from the field and has averaged 105.8 points per game. They have held opponents to 41.3% shooting and 90.4 points per game.

Cleveland is 1-4 in their past 5 games. Only 1 of these games was played against a team with a winning record. They lost that one game by 30 points. They have been averaging 94 points per game and have been allowing 102 points per game. The Cavs have been allowing a field goal against percentage of 44.6% and have shot 45.3%.

What does this tell us? This gives me about a 65% certainty that Miami will win this game by 10 points or more. The Over/Under is going to be too close to call one way or another. If Miami wins going away, the Under should be a winner. If this game is closer than 10 points down the stretch, the Over should be reached.

You are never going to be 100% sure on a wager. The best you can ever hope for is 70% to 75% sure on a point spread. If this were a closer match up, I would also look at additional categories such as turnovers and assists in the past 5 games, rebounds and rebounding margin, and free throws attempted and free throw percentages.

The best thing that you can do is to watch the team or teams that your are planning on betting on or against. This will give you a more accurate view if those statistics are skewed by garbage time or for any other reason. A team can always rise up and beat another team unexpectedly as well, so don’t be disappointed when your research doesn’t pan out. Doing your homework should give you a better chance than simply flipping a coin.

Betting on NBA Games Online

One of the latest features to be offered by online betting sites is the ability to be able to bet on live basketball games. This is called In-Play betting and only a few of the online sportsbooks offer this such as Bovada.lv.

There are only a couple of games per night that are selected to have In-Play betting available. Usually, these are either premier match ups or games that are broadcast nationwide on one of the networks. These games will be designated as a Live betting game beforehand so you can get ready for the match up.

You will be able to place all of the traditional wagers before the game starts, such as the Point Spread and Total. Other wagers will also be allowed before the Tip-off such as Player and Team props.

Player props will include whether a player will have over or under a set amount of point, rebounds or assists. Other player props include whether an individual will make his first field goal attempt or three point attempt and which player will be the first to score a point in the game.

Team props include “Which team will score first?”, “Which team will be the first to reach a certain number of points?”, moneyline and total bets for a quarter or half, and the over/under for the total number of points scored by a particular team.

Once a game is started, the In-Play betting will begin. This includes updated point spreads, moneylines and total betting. In addition to that, you will be able to make bets on live events such as whether an individual will make or miss his next shot attempt. Other live bets will include whether a player on the line will make or miss his next free throw, which team will be the first to score after the 6:00 mark of a quarter, or which team will be the next to block or steal the ball.

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